St. Cloud Sun

Minnesota's House Majority Leader got part of his request for the data and assumptions used to project how the coronavirus will affect the state when public health officials held a new conference on April 10.

“After designing and building our model, we are sharing details about our modeling to better inform the public of what information contributes to decision-making, and to explain why guidance like social distancing is critical to protect the health of Minnesotans,” the Minnesota Department of Public Health (MDPH) posted on its COVID-19 site.

House Majority Leader Kurt Daudt called on public health officials to release their COVID-19 modeling data. The MDPH and the Walz administration make decisions that affect every state resident.

"We all want to do our part to protect the health and safety of our neighbors during this crisis, and Minnesotans deserve to know data and assumptions that are driving the decisions being made," Daudt said on the Minnesota GOP Caucus site.

As of April 11, Minnesota reported 1,427 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 64 deaths.

The model developed by MDPH and the University of Minnesota estimates daily COVID-19 cases. It projects the number of people in the ICU and how many people will die from the coronavirus in the state. It predicts the peak of the epidemic, what that number will be and when the number of ICU beds available will fall short of the need.

That model’s estimates on April 10 suggest that COVID-19 will have a long-term effect on state residents because the virus spreads easily and how fatal it is. The social distancing policies adopted will lead to the peak coming later for cases and hospitalizations. The social distancing necessary to “flatten the curve” will take a long time. That also extends the length of time of the epidemic.

“Mathematical models are not crystal balls. They cannot tell us what will happen in the future. Instead they provide a range of plausible outcomes given what is presently known about disease natural history and the state of the epidemic,” public health officials said in an FAQ on COVID-19 modeling.

Public health officials posted details about the model and the underlying data at Coronavirus Disease in Minnesota.

The research teams are near completion in building a dynamic interface for the Minnesota model. They hope to make it public, along with its underlying code, in April.